Libya - Still a mess
More than eleven years after the Revolution, Libya is still a mess.
What could be a way towards stabilization? And what could or should the U.S. do about it?
Here is what our Advisory Board has to say:
NEW - NEW - NEW (10/24/22): Dr. Stefano Marcuzzi, UCD School of Politics and International Relations, Ireland, explains how crucial it is to stop Libya’s political crisis spilling over into economic warfare. He recommends the U.S. should revive the ‘Libya Special Committee for Oversight’ (LSCO) project and explains how to do so.
Still a mess - What could be a way out for Libya?
Since the collapse of Libya’s central authority in 2011, the country’s political landscape has been dominated by armed groups that managed to extract streams of money from Libya’s political and economic institutions, including the government and the Libyan Central Bank (CBL). This has favored a zero-sum game in which Libyan militias benefitted from the war economy whilst most of the population suffered. Stopping Libya’s political crisis spilling over into economic warfare that would deprive Libyans of salaries, subsidized goods and state investment – as well as hitting global energy markets – is therefore an important component of the stabilization process.
Facilitating stabilization - What could/should the U.S. do?
Last spring, the US embassy in Tripoli put forward a proposal for a ‘Mechanism for Short Term Financial, Economic and Energy Dependability’ or ‘Mustafeed’. It envisaged a so-called ‘Libya Special Committee for Oversight’ (LSCO) entity that would provide oversight of Libyan finances and ensure NOC revenues are distributed transparently and for critical public needs (salaries, critical infrastructure maintenance, medical services etc). LSCO would be managed by a private independent audit firm and a selection of representatives of Libyan authorities. After a positive reception of the project by both western and eastern Libya authorities, the latter rejected it on grounds that it was disrespectful of Libya’s sovereignty. Most probably, the real reason is that the exclusion of representatives from Fathi Bashagha’s Government of National Stability (GNS) raised doubts in Cyrenaica that the LSCO could satisfy the grievances of that region. To revitalize the project, the US needs to make it more inclusive, giving greater guarantees to the eastern authorities, whilst at the same time resorting to sanctions against those Libyans who make turnarounds or play a double-game with the ultimate objective of maintaining Libya’s broken status quo.
(Dr. Stefano Marcuzzi, UCD School of Politics and International Relations, Ireland)
Still a mess - What could be a way out for Libya?
The arc of conflict in Libya over the last 10 years demonstrated the enormous cost of partial intervention, intervention by proxy, and inconsistent long-term policy. As usual, the costs of failure greatly exceeded the costs of success.
Facilitating stabilization - What could/should the U.S. do?
If done competently, it is in the interest of US national security to launch and lead a (ideally multilateral) long-term development strategy that abandons the narrow focus on installing a government at any costs, in favor of efforts to to 1.) remove all foreign military and paramilitary forces, and diminish the influence of foreign ideologies, whatever they be 2.) create a workable mechanism for the custodianship and sharing of Libya's oil and gas resources and 3.) help build basic health, education and employment infrastructure and solid governance at city and regional levels, in a way that delivers fast, visible results within a roadmap for future political and economic convergence. This will require real leadership on the part of the US (mostly), and international community. And it won't be cheap, so the rationale, risks, return - and limits - of such an investment need to be explained clearly to both Libyans and the American public.
(Dr. Ethan Chorin, author of Benghazi! A New History (Hachette, 2022))
Still a mess - What could be a way out for Libya?
As 11 years mark the NATO attacks on Libya, the country has been left in a state of chaos. Consequently it is constantly classified as an uncontrolled territory. This is due to numerous external parties who are mainly concentrating on their national security rather than on Libya and its people's interest. Finally, even Libyan warlords and leaders work from the perspective of their own self-interest achieving the greatest possible personal gain.
Facilitating stabilization - What could/should the U.S. do?
Libya, according to the US classification, is one of the fragile countries. Hence, the USA should use all diplomatic means and foreign assistance to put all parties at the delegates' table to implement the road map for national elections, including all the countries involved in Libyan affairs.
(Dr. Mohamed ElKeshky, Egypt)
Still a mess - What could be a way out for Libya?
Libya always needs a local solution, still. We've been at this for too many years and clearly there are problems with the policy prescriptions to date. International agendas warp the local requirements. Libya's current issues over governance, power, and the outcome of any type of electoral process in the future must be ground-driven. The types of encouragement for the unique granular atmospherics of Libya's diversity can be reworked into a better model of assistance that avoids labels of outside interference and instead replaces them with ideas of cooperation and ability to mediate disputes. Currents and trajectories in Libya need to be better understood always. The scene of course is complicated by outside interference and the characteristics of some of the personalities who are on the Libyan scene. In addition Russia's invasion of Ukraine is going to have ripple effects upon Libya too and this fact must be mitigated. No doubt Western sanctions are part of the landscape and need to be adhered to with the utmost pressure.
Facilitating stabilization - What could/should the U.S. do?
The United States needs to get on top of the new head of UNISMIL Abdoulaye Bathily of Senegal who is an interesting choice for this position. Here the US needs to court many different actors not only the usual suspects but also with more of a focus on key African players. With the African coup belt near Libya and the competition between outside powers over governments and CT operations, Washington must watch for containing this mess from the Libyan space. It is this African approach in which perhaps Libya is place more squarely in the policy assistance required. USG actors in particularly AFRICOM and EUCOM are working on regional ideas at the same time that they're focusing on the individual ones. Libya requires a new approach that takes into full consideration the current and future security environment.
(Dr. Theodore Karasik, Senior Advisor, Gulf State Analytics, Washington DC)
Still a mess - What could be a way out for Libya?
Finding out will not be easy. This because the riches of Libya interest many countries of the Mediterranean and beyond. All current institutions in Libya lack legitimacy and the legitimacy of the institutions can only come through elections. It is necessary to preserve the national unity of Libya, to end the war and to block the intervention of Turkey and Russia. The foregoing is the basis for ending the fighting and armed clashes between various groups of rival militias across the country.
The absence of a single government body and unified security forces could allow militant organizations, including the Islamic State (IS), to regain a foothold in Libya. As long as external stakeholders do not make serious efforts to reach a peace agreement in Libya, the prospects for peace and stability remain very limited. Egypt, France, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Russia would support the LNA, while Turkey, Italy and Qatar would provide support for the GNU. The pursuit by these countries of diverging interests in Libya complicates efforts to arrive at a meaningful political solution. An international agreement must be found because, despite the creation of the GNU, the country remains divided between east and west, with their respective supporters remaining essentially unchanged.
Facilitating stabilization - What could/should the U.S. do?
Washington's possible decision to work towards long-term peace-building could trigger a positive process for the resolution of the conflict both politically / diplomatically and economically. This could also encourage the European Union to participate more actively. If Libya becomes stable and economically self-sufficient, it can provide for the needs of its people, reduce dangerous migrant smuggling to Europe (especially Italy) and collaborate with international partners to counter religious extremism and radical terrorism.
The US government has the diplomatic authority to bring the warring parties in Libya back to the negotiating table for the initial goal of defining and implementing a roadmap for national elections. To achieve this, the United States would have to involve the European Union and force Turkey to persuade Libyan political leaders to resolve the pending differences. The Turkish dictatorship and the Russian presidency, however, will try to destabilize Libya or its neighboring countries.
(Professor Giuseppe Morabito, Brigadier General (Ret. - ITA A))
SEVERAL MORE STATEMENTS COMING SOON!